Posted at 27 May 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
•Sweden Apr Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•Sweden Apr Retail Sales (YoY) 2.4%, 1.2% previous
•EU Apr Loans to Non Financial Corporations 5.2%, 4.2% previous
•EU Apr M3 Money Supply (YoY) 6.0%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•Italian Apr Trade Balance Non-EU -2.29B, -0.51B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Apr Retail Inventories Ex Auto 2.5% previous
•12:30 US Apr Personal Income (MoM) 0.5%forecast, 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Apr Goods Trade Balance -127.12B previous
•12:30 US Apr Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.9% forecast, 5.2% previous
•12:30 US Apr Personal Spending (MoM) 0.7% forecast, 1.1% previous
•12:30 US Apr PCE Price index (YoY) 6.6 previous
•12:30 US Apr PCE price index (MoM) 0.9% previous
•12:30 US Apr Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Apr Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Current Conditions 63.6 forecast,69.4 previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Inflation Expectations 5.4% forecast,5.4% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment 59.1 forecast, 65.2 previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Expectations 56.3 forecast, 62.5 previous
•15:00 Canada Mar Budget Balance 5.47B previous
•15:00 Canada Mar Budget Balance (YoY) -69.82B previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 576 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 728 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Friday after a less hawkish stance from the European Central Bank soothed fears of aggressive monetary tightening. Recent comments from ECB officials tend to rule out a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike in July, while minutes from the Fed meeting indicated the central bank might pause rate hikes later in the year. Investors are awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge later on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0755(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0813(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0706(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0649(233.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied against dollar on Friday as sterling was helped by a large government spending package to support households and which economists said should support the economy in the short term. The government on Thursday announced a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers’ profits to help fund a 15 billion pound ($18.9 billion) package of support for households struggling to meet soaring energy bills. By 11:12 GMT, the pound was 0.1% higher at $1.2603 after earlier reaching $1.2666. It is on course for a 1% gain this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2657(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2703(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2579(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2495 (23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Friday as traders lowered Federal Reserve rate hike expectations amid signs the U.S. central bank might slow or even pause its tightening cycle in the second half of the year. A broad-based decline in U.S. Treasury yields, weak economic data and cautious comments by some Fed policymakers including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic this week have raised the prospect that the dollar's gains premised on aggressive rate hikes may have halted for now. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, fell as low as 101.43 for the first time since April 25. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9609(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9650(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9559 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9507(Lower BB ).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors a took comfort from Federal Reserve minutes showing a pause to its rate hikes is on the cards later this year.The Fed’s minutes of its May meeting released on Wednesday confirmed two more 50-basis point hikes each in June and July, but policymakers also suggested the potential for a pause later in the year. Signs that aggressive Fed action may already be slowing economic growth are also emerging. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week as the labor market remained tight. Strong resistance can be seen at 127.28(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 128.53(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 126.53 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 125.78(38.2%fib).
European shares extended gains for a third straight session on Friday and were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than two months, as easing bets about aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks lifted sentiment.
At (GMT 11:12 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.82 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.92 percent.
Gold prices rose on Friday and were on track for a second consecutive weekly gain on a softer dollar, while expectations of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve pared.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,858.76 per ounce by 1003 GMT. U.S. gold futures were also up 0.5% at $1,856.40.
Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for weekly gains, supported by a prospect of a tight market due to rising gasoline consumption in the United States in summer, and also the possibility of an EU ban on Russian oil.
Brent crude was up 58 cents, or 0.5%, at $117.98 at 0844 GMT, and was on track for a gain of about 5% this week.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 27 cents, or 0.2%, at $114.36 a barrel. WTI is set for a weekly gain of about 1%.