Posted at 30 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
•US PCE data show underlying price pressures subside
•US indexes: Dow down 0.47%, S&P down 0.27%, Nasdaq up 0.14%
•US Aug Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.1%, 0.6% previous
•US Aug PCE Price index (YoY) 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.3% previous
•US Aug Personal Income (MoM) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Aug Personal Spending (MoM) 0.4%,0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Aug PCE price index (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Aug Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Aug Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 3.9%,3.9% forecast, 4.2% previous
•US Aug Goods Trade Balance -84.27B, -91.20B forecast, -90.92B previous
•Canada Jul GDP (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.1%,0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Sep Chicago PMI 44.1, 47.6 forecast,48.7 previous
•US Sep Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.2%, 3.1% forecast,3.5% previous
•US Sep Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.8%,2.7% forecast,3.0% previous
•US Sep Michigan Consumer Expectations 66.0,66.3 forecast,65.5 previous
•US Sep Michigan Consumer Sentiment 68.1,67.7 forecast,69.5 previous
• US Sep Michigan Current Conditions 71.4,69.8 forecast, 75.7 previous
•Canada Jul Budget Balance (YoY) -1.24B,3.62B previous
•Canada Jul Budget Balance -4.86B,2.11B previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 502,507 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 623 ,630 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant Events
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 3.9% on an annual basis for August, the first time in over two years it had fallen below 4%. The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target. The euro gained 0.10% on the day to $1.0578, but is set for its worst quarter against the dollar in a year, with a 3.08% decline. The single currency has bounced from an almost nine-month low of $1.0488 on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0582(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0619(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0491 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0441(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday after data showed the British economy grew quicker than expected since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but was still set for its worst quarter against the dollar in a year.The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s economy in the second quarter of 2023 was 1.8% larger than in the final quarter of 2019, the last full quarter before the start of the pandemic. Sterling rose 0.04% to $1.2206, having this week hit its lowest since March 17.The British currency is on track for a quarterly loss of 3.85% against the U.S. dollar, the worst performance in a year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2274(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2315(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2179 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2098(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a two-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, adding to its quarterly decline, as domestic GDP data supported the view that the Bank of Canada is finished hiking interest rates. Canadian economic growth ground to a halt in July as the manufacturing sector posted its biggest decline in more than two years, while a preliminary estimate showed GDP edging up 0.1% in August. Money markets see a 26% chance of a rate hike at the BoC's next policy decision on Oct. 26, down from 31% before the data.The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3570 to the greenback, after touching its weakest intraday level since Sept. 13 at 1.3576.For the week, it was also down 0.6%, while it lost 0.5% in September and 2.5% in the third quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3587 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3635 (Aug 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3541(21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3504(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased on Friday giving the yen some breathing room as intervention watch intensified. Despite some respite on Friday, pressure remains on the yen as it trades near 150 per dollar, a level many believe is potential intervention trigger for authorities. Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed in September for the third straight month mainly on falling fuel costs, data showed on Friday. The yen strengthened 0.10% on Friday versus the greenback at 149.13 per dollar. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.16%. The greenback is up 3.54% against the yen this quarter, following an 8.66% gain last quarter. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.79(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.04(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 148.18 (38.2%fib).
European shares rose on Friday after a drop in euro zone inflation in September cemented hopes the European Central Bank will pause its interest rate hikes, but the benchmark index still logged its worst quarter in a year.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.41 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.37 percent.
The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday as investors digested implications of a U.S. inflation report for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and adjusted their portfolios on the last day of a weak third quarter for stocks.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.47% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.27% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.14% percent.
Benchmark 10-year yields were well above their lows of the day but still down 1.6 basis points at 4.581%, from 4.597% late on Thursday. The 30-year bond was last down 2.3 basis points to yield 4.7065%. The 2-year note was last was down 1.3 basis points to yield 5.0582%.
Gold prices extended declines on Friday and were on track for monthly and quarterly declines on expectations that the U.S. central bank may keep interest rates higher for longer.
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $1,850.44 per ounce by 1:53 p.m. EDT (1753 GMT), its lowest in more than six months. U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% lower at $1,866.10.
Oil prices settled 1% lower on Friday due to macroeconomic concerns and profit taking, but rose about 30% in the quarter as OPEC+ production cuts squeezed global crude supply.
Front-month Brent November futures settled down 7 cents to $95.31 per barrel at the contract's expiry, up about 2.2% in the week and 27% in the third quarter. The more liquid Brent December contract was settled down 90 cents to $92.20 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down 92 cents to $90.97, up 1% in the week and 29% in the quarter.