Europe Roundup: Sterling rises after UK growth data, European shares rise, Gold edge up, Oil set for 2% weekly gain on China holiday demand, tight US supply-September 29th,2023

Posted at 29 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups

Market Roundup

•German Aug Retail Sales (MoM)-1.2%,  0.5% forecast,-0.8%previous

•German Aug   Import Price Index (MoM )0.4%, 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous

•German Aug   German Import Price Index (YoY) -16.4%, -16.4%  forecast,-13.2% previous

•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2%, 0.2%               forecast, 0.1% previous

•UK GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous

•German Aug Retail Sales (YoY)  -2.3%,  -0.7% forecast, -2.2% previous

•French Sep CPI (MoM)  -0.5%, -0.3% forecast, 1.0% previous

•EU Aug PPI (YoY) -1.30%,0.90% previous

•French Aug Consumer Spending (MoM)-0.5%,   -0.5% forecast,0.3% previous

•French Aug French PPI (MoM)  0.6%, -0.2% previous

•French   Sep CPI (YoY) 4.9%,5.1% forecast,4.9% previous

•  French HICP (MoM)-0.6%,-0.3% forecast,1.1% previous

• German Sep Unemployment Change  10K, 15K forecast,18K previous

• German Sep   Unemployment Rate  5.7%,5.7% forecast, 5.7% previous

•  German Sep Unemployment  2.642M  , 2.630M previous

• Italian Sep CPI (YoY)  5.3%, 5.3% forecast,5.4% previous

• EU Sep CPI (YoY) 4.3%, 4.5% forecast, 5.2% previous

• EU Sep CPI, n.s.a  124.44, 124.03 previous

• EU Sep CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.5% previous

• EU Core CPI (YoY) 4.5%,4.8% forecast, 5.3% previous

• EU Core CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•12:30 US Aug Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.6% previous

•12:30 US Aug PCE Price index (YoY)  3.5% forecast, 3.3% previous

•12:30 US Aug Personal Income (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous

•12:30 US Aug Personal Spending (MoM)  0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous

•12:30 US Aug PCE price index (MoM)   0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous

•12:30 US Aug Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous

•12:30 US Aug Core PCE Price Index (YoY)  3.9% forecast, 4.2% previous

•12:30 US Aug Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.2% previous

•12:30 US Aug Goods Trade Balance  -91.20B forecast, -90.92B previous

•12:30 Canada Jul  GDP (MoM) 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous

•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous

•13:45   US  Sep Chicago PMI  47.6 forecast,48.7 previous

•14:00   US Sep Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations  3.1% forecast,3.5% previous

•14:00 US Sep Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations  2.7% forecast,3.0% previous

•14:00 US Sep Michigan Consumer Expectations 66.3 forecast,65.5 previous

•14:00 US Sep Michigan Consumer Sentiment 67.7 forecast,69.5 previous

•14:00 US Sep Michigan Current Conditions 69.8 forecast, 75.7 previous

•15:00 Canada Jul  Budget Balance (YoY) 3.62B previous

•15:00 Canada Jul  Budget Balance  2.11B previous

•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 507 previous

•17:00   U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 630 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

•16:45  US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

•16:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks  

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday after data showed Euro zone inflation fell to lowest in 2 years.Inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in two years in September, suggesting the European Central Bank's steady diet of interest rate hikes was succeeding in curbing runaway prices albeit at a growing cost for economic growth.Consumer prices in the 20 countries that share the euro rose by 4.3% in September, the slowest pace since October 2021, from 5.2% one month earlier, according to Eurostat's flash reading published on Friday. The euro rose for a second day, up 0.4% at $1.0608, pulling further away from this week's multi-month low of $1.0488. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0572(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0619(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  1.0503(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0491(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday after data showed the British economy grew quicker than expected since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but was still set for its worst quarter against the dollar in a year.The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s economy in the second quarter of 2023 was 1.8% larger than in the final quarter of 2019, the last full quarter before the start of the pandemic. Sterling rose by as much as 0.52% to a session high of $1.2265, and was last at $1.2264. For the quarter, however, the currency has lost 3.3% in value. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2265(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2281(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2119 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2067(Lower BB). 

 USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Friday as investors   looked out for data on U.S. inflation later in the day for further cues on the Fed's rate path. The latest release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index will provide a fuller picture of inflationary trends in the world's largest economy.Investors will also turn their attention to Washington, where the Democratic-led U.S. Senate forged ahead on Thursday with a bipartisan stopgap funding bill aimed at averting a fourth partial government shutdown in a decade. The dollar index eased 0.5% to 105.69 but hovered near 10-month highs of 106.84 touched earlier this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9220 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9240(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9122(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9090(38.2%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar eased   on Friday giving the yen some breathing room as intervention watch intensified. Despite some respite on Friday, pressure remains on the yen as it trades near 150 per dollar, a level many believe is potential intervention trigger for authorities.The yen last traded at 149.125 to the dollar, which eased 0.13% on the day.Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed in September for the third straight month mainly on falling fuel costs, data showed on Friday. Markets are looking ahead to the next data points, starting with key U.S. personal consumption data due later on Friday. However, a partial government shutdown is looming, which could affect the release of economic data. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.79(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.09 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.04(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 148.18 (38.2%fib).

Equities Recap

European shares rose on Friday, helped by gains in luxury and technology stocks, as investors focused on a slew of economic data towards the end of a tumultuous quarter.

At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.68  percent, Germany's Dax up by 1.04 percent, France’s CAC   was up  by 1.12 percent.

Commodities Recap


Oil prices were set for a weekly gain of around 2% after regaining ground on Friday as strong holiday demand from China and persistently tight U.S. fundamentals outweighed expectations of possible supply increases from Saudi Arabia.

Brent November futures  which expire on Friday rose 5 cents to $95.43 per barrel. Brent December futures   gained 13 cents to trade at $93.23 per barrel at 0335 GMT.

Gold prices edged up on Friday as a rally in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields stalled, but was on track for monthly and quarterly declines on increased hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,867.80 per ounce by 1148 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $1,885.10.

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